Monday, October 3, 2011

Court outlaws Bayes' rule!

Image from the article in The Guardian
Well, sort of. From this brief article in The Guardian (UK), it seems that the judge was most concerned about dubious values for the probabilities being used for the terms in Bayes' rule, not the validity of Bayes' rule itself. The judge seems to have been worried that garbage in yields garbage out. But the article also gives the impression that the judge outlawed the use of Bayes' rule in court, unless the component probabilities could be proven. That's like outlawing the use of modus ponens, unless the antecedent can be proven.

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